"No jobs north of 38 degrees latitude," tweeted Bloomberg contributor Conor Sen. (He was referring to a USA Today story on America's best cities for job seekers). While that's absolutely true for the continental United States, it's certainly not the case for Canada. In fact, Canadian metropolitan areas have significantly outperformed their U.S. peers on jobs since the turn of the new millennium. That's true both for large metros like Toronto and Vancouver, and also for smaller metros like Edmonton, St. John's, and Saskatoon, where job performance is similar to booming American Sunbelt cities.
The analysis, that I conducted with colleagues at the University of Toronto'sMartin Prosperity Institute, is based on comparative data provided by the
Between 2001 and 2016, a relatively small number of
Canadian and U.S. metros with similar growth, 2001-2016
An even greater percentage of Canadian metros posted modest job growth compared to their American counterparts. A quarter of all metros saw annual job growth between one and two per cent across the two nations. But, almost half of Canadian metros were part of this group, whereas only a quarter of American metros made the cut. Where U.S.
Canadian metros were significantly less likely to see slow annual job growth of between zero and one per cent over this period. Just under half of all metros across the two countries fell into this category. But more than half of American metros experienced slow job growth compared to just three in Canada. Montreal's rate of job growth was similar to Washington D.C., and Halifax topped San Francisco and New York.
Overall, slightly less than a fifth of metros saw job losses over this period. But this list includes just one metro in Canada, Windsor, compared to 40 in U.S. (almost 20 per cent) mainly in the Rustbelt.
Canadian and U.S. job growth after the Great Recession
While Canadian metros were the clear winners in job growth over the past decade and a half, the pattern has changed somewhat during the more recent post-economic crisis recovery spanning 2012 and 2016. More metros overall posted job gains over this period, and U.S. metros in particular performed better relative to their Canadian counterparts. The economic crisis hit harder at the U.S. economy and U.S. metros thus experienced greater job gains as they rebounded from the crisis. Even so, Vancouver posted better job gains than Houston and Toronto outperformed Los Angeles and New York. Not a single Canadian metro lost jobs over this period, while 13 U.S. metros did.
Now a much larger group of metros across the two nations — almost a third — saw job growth of more than two per cent per year, compared to less than 10 per cent for the broader period. This group of high-job-growth metros includes just two Canadian metros — Vancouver and Victoria — compared to a third of U.S. metros.
A larger share of Canadian metros (40 per cent) saw modest job gains of one to two per cent a year compared to roughly a third of U.S. metros. Toronto's job growth was similar to Los Angeles and better than Boston's, or New York's, and San Diego's. Overall, a larger share of metros (37.4 per cent) across the two nations experienced modest job gains compared to roughly a quarter
Roughly half of Canadian metros experienced slow annual job growth of between zero and one per cent compared to less than a quarter of U.S. metros. This group includes Edmonton, Quebec City, Montreal, and Halifax. Overall, roughly a quarter of metros fell into the slow job growth category in wake of the economic crisis and recovery, compared to almost half
Job growth remains uneven or "spiky" across both Canada and the
As economic inequality — the gap between rich and poor — has grown, so too has geographic inequality: the divide between cities. Talent, jobs, and economic success have concentrated in a relatively small number of metros, something I call "winner-take-all urbanism," while other cities and metro areas fall further behind.
Posted by Huffington Post